GRN 3.7% vs LNP
Incumbent MP
Stephen Bates, since 2022.
Geography
Central Brisbane. Brisbane covers the Brisbane CBD and inner suburbs north of the Brisbane River including Fortitude Valley, Paddington, Ashgrove, Kelvin Grove, Newmarket, Clayfield and Hendra.
History
Brisbane is an original federation electorate. It had been held by the ALP for most of its history interrupted by short periods of conservative MPs, up until the last decade.
The seat was first won by Thomas Macdonald-Paterson, who joined the Protectionists when Parliament first sat. Macdonald-Paterson was not endorsed by the local Protectionists for the 1903 election, and the split in the protectionist vote gave the seat to the ALP’s Millice Culpin.
Culpin was himself defeated after one term by Justin Foxton of the Anti-Socialist Party (formerly the Free Traders). Foxton served as a minister from 1909 until his defeat at the 1910 election by the ALP’s William Finlayson.
Finlayson held the seat until 1919, when he was defeated by Donald Charles Cameron of the Nationalist Party. Cameron held the seat until 1931, when he lost the seat against the tide of conservative gains against the Scullin Government. Cameron returned to serve one term in the neighbouring seat of Lilley from 1934 to 1937.
The ALP held the seat continuously for the next fourty-four years, with only two MPs holding the seat from 1931 until 1975. George Lawson won the seat in 1931 and held it until 1961. He served as Minister for Transport from 1941 until the 1943 election. The seat was then held by Manfred Cross until his defeat by Liberal Peter Johnson in 1975. Johnson defeated Cross again in 1977 before Cross won the seat back in 1980.
Cross held the seat until his retirement in 1990, when the ALP chose Arch Bevis, who held the seat for the next twenty years. While Brisbane has never been held by a large margin, it came closest to being lost to the Liberals in 1996, when Bevis’ margin was cut to 0.36%.
In 2010, the Liberal National Party ran former MP Teresa Gambaro. Gambaro had served as member for the marginal seat of Petrie from 1996 until she was defeated in 2007.
Gambaro won the seat in 2010 with a 5.7% swing, and was re-elected with a further 3.2% swing in 2013.
Gambaro retired in 2016, and the LNP’s Trevor Evans won. Evans was re-elected in 2019.
Evans lost in 2022 to Greens candidate Stephen Bates, who won the seat despite coming in third place on primary votes.
Assessment
Brisbane was one of the most interesting and complex seats in 2022, with Bates winning from third place.
It seems likely that Bates will benefit from a personal vote boost, which will likely make it easier for him to stay clear of Labor at the next election.
Bates’ margin against the LNP is also very slim, and a relatively small swing would see the LNP regain the seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Trevor Evans | Liberal National | 41,032 | 37.7 | -10.1 |
| Madonna Jarrett | Labor | 29,652 | 27.3 | +2.8 |
| Stephen Bates | Greens | 29,641 | 27.2 | +4.9 |
| Trevor Hold | One Nation | 2,429 | 2.2 | -0.3 |
| Tiana Kennedy | Animal Justice | 2,135 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| Justin Marc Knudson | United Australia | 2,102 | 1.9 | +0.5 |
| Anthony Bull | Liberal Democrats | 1,807 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Informal | 2,312 | 2.1 | -0.4 |
2022 three-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Trevor Evans | Liberal National | 45,125 | 41.5 | -9.4 |
| Stephen Bates | Greens | 32,741 | 30.1 | +6.4 |
| Madonna Jarrett | Labor | 30,932 | 28.4 | +3.1 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
| Stephen Bates | Greens | 58,460 | 53.7 |
| Trevor Evans | Liberal National | 50,338 | 46.3 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Madonna Jarrett | Labor | 59,183 | 54.4 | +9.3 |
| Trevor Evans | Liberal National | 49,615 | 45.6 | -9.3 |
Booths have been divided into three areas:
- Central – Brisbane, Fortitude Valley, New Farm, Spring Hill, Windsor.
- North East – Ascot, Clayfield, Hendra, Stafford
- West – Alderley, Ashgrove, Ithaca, Kelvin Grove, Newmarket, Paddington, Red Hill
There are two different thresholds that decide who wins Brisbane: firstly, who is leading in the race between Labor and the Greens? And then, after preferences, does the LNP have a majority against the main progressive opponent?
On a two-candidate-preferred basis, the Greens won a majority in two out of three areas, with 58.5% in the west and 61.7% in the centre. The LNP won 54.5% in the south-east. The Greens also won 55.2% of the pre-poll votes and the LNP won 50.8% of the other vote.
On a primary vote basis, the Greens outpolled Labor in two out of three areas, with the Greens primary vote peaking at 34.5% in the centre. Labor outpolled the Greens in the north-east, but that was also Labor’s worst area.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 30.2 | 29.4 | 58.5 | 20,024 | 18.4 |
| North East | 21.3 | 24.7 | 45.5 | 14,894 | 13.7 |
| Central | 34.5 | 27.4 | 61.7 | 13,777 | 12.7 |
| Pre-poll | 28.1 | 27.9 | 55.2 | 31,934 | 29.4 |
| Other votes | 23.7 | 26.3 | 49.2 | 28,169 | 25.9 |
Election results in Brisbane at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs LNP), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
There always need to be reservations when you know a poll has been commissioned by someone with skin in the game whether it be Advance Australia, trade unions, Climate 200, etc. The same poll had the Greens losing in Wills but seeming to pick up Macnamara. This poll also had Griffith as line ball. Seriously hard to see MCM losing unless by some chance he fell into third place. Brisbane would seem a definite chance of a Labor win, and Ryan a Liberal win. Wills and Macnamara could get really dirty and really expensive. They have to be in with a chance in Richmond as well. If everything fell their way, the Greens could end up with 7 seats but could also end up with just 2 – Melbourne and Griffith.
LNP will win Ryan. Greens will win Griffith on a reduced margin vs LNP. Brisbane is a tossup between Liberal and Labor depeding on where the greens finish. Libs will win if the greens finish second. Labor will win if they finish second. Libs will finish first in all 3 contests.
Labor will retain Wills on a reduced margin and Greens will be a tight contest. but i think libs will finish first there too
@ j9hn
Wh6 cannot the greens win Brisbane
@John In no sane universe will the Liberals ever finish first in Wills. It’s one of the most left wing seats in the country where Labor is perceived as the ‘right wing’ party, whilst the Liberals are the ON/UAP/TOP in that electorate. If anyone else other than Labor was to come first it would have to be the Greens.
@tommo sry i was writing something about macnamara but for whatever reason that did not appear thats what i was refering too. now ive forgotten what is was…
@mick based on 2022 results libs lost votes to both lab and the greens and i expect that to reverse. what i cant say is where they will finish on the 3cp. they will lose enough votes to lose them the seat but i cant be sure who to. and the member simply has not been visible from what i hear. he effectively pulled a Bradbury.
All three major parties are putting a lot of time here, if Labor was smarter they’d let the Liberals and Greens work it out. I think it would be fair to say that out of the 4 Greens seats this appears to be the most vulnerable despite not being the most marginal.
Why shouldn’t Labor contest this? This is probably their best chance of reclaiming a seat from the Greens. Certainly they should have significantly better chances than the Liberals considering how greatly this seat has trended left.
@SpaceFish Brisbane is the most marginal Greens seat
@Am Now – Ryan is the most marginal GRN seat in QLD with a 2.65% majority for the Greens. In Brisbane, the GRN margin is 3.73%. Even on the 2PP count Ryan is more marginal than Brisbane.
Presumably Am Now is referring to the 3CP.
Makes sense. Thanks for clarifying.
In terms of 3CP, Brisbane would undoubtedly be the most marginal GRN seat in Brisbane.
@Am Now, in 3CP and primary vote in Brisbane electorate is the most marginal out of there four seats that the Greens hold but, not in ttp as it is the third most marginal in the ttp. I would say though that these days in close contests like this that the ttp is not that relevant or helpful.
Brisbane requires the smallest amount of the vote to change for the MP to change. Therefore it is the most marginal
For the Greens to lose Melbourne they need a 6.9% swing away (2CP), in Ryan they need a 2.7% swing away (2CP), in Griffith its 2.1% (3CP, For Labor to finish ahead of the LNP), and in Brisbane its 0.8% (3CP)
Libs will not drop from the 3cp in Griffith. Labor’s best chance is to push the greens out
@John I assume you mean the 2CP? Why would the libs not drop from it? The Labor candidate has been running a strong campaign for months, and the Libs still don’t have a candidate. Given there’s only a 1.9% difference in the LNP and ALP primary vote, surely Labor could make the 2CP against the Greens?
Also Brisbane voter here.
I’ve been seeing a lot of Madonna Jarrett ads on TV and social media, have seen a few Madonna corflutes too. I’ve seen a lot of anti-greens ads online over the past few weeks (from “Australians for Prosperity”). I have also seen some anti-greens billboards, and one Trevor Evans billboard. I haven’t seen anything from The Greens yet.
I’m yet to see a corflute from the LNP or Greens, although it’s only been a day since they started being installed in BCC. The Greens usually put corflutes everywhere.
Aa because the 2022 Brisbane vote was a low point for the libs which I expect to rebound libs normally make the 2cp based on primary votes and there should be enough right if centre vote to keep them there. Labor’s increase in vote is likely to come at the expense of the greens.
I’m talking about Griffith for that first comment. Even if Labor’s vote increases at the expense of The Greens, I reckon there’s a chance they could overtake the LNP and make the 2CP vs The Greens
I don’t think so even in Griffith which is what I meant when I said Brisbane libs aren’t missing out on the 2cp. There’s always been enough centre right vote to help them into it. Usually they make it on primary votes and should recover from 2022s low point.
Bates has been less visible than his colleagues in Griffith and Ryan but I’ve seen his name in the news for the first time today as he’s made a free OnlyFans page where he’s talking about HIV prevention policies. Bringing a new meaning to Stephen “Bates” I see…
Jeepers, there are so many factors at play here. I think I’m gonna go against the grain and call this one for Labor. They’ve put in a heck of a campaign, and I can’t see Bates’ vote holding, although I think he’ll end up far behind Labor at the end of the day. Labor finishing third in 2022 helped Evans considerably; if the Greens finish third I can’t imagine the ALP/Lib TPP will look all that different to how it did then. (Assuming about 25% of the cooker party preferences ultimately flow left – not sure if this is the standard amount but it was the case in Macnamara, where I lived in 2022.) As I’m expecting a national swing to the Libs of under 3% (possibly a fair bit lower), not sure Brisbane will be the place to help get Dutton into power.
I wonder if it was ultimately a mistake to run Evans again. Yes, he’s got a strong profile among party faithful, he’s a former MP, and pitting a gay millennial Lib against a gay millennial Green is certainly a way to defuse that image problem. But for voters tired of the status quo, with no independent to send their protest vote to, I’m not sure that “we’re running this lifelong politico for the fourth time” is reading the room correctly?
Bates has reportedly joined Only Fans
Bates has been invisible, perhaps he wasn’t expecting the odd result in 2022 and realised it wasn’t likely to reoccur, so do a stress free 3 years?
I’d pick Greens to drop at least 10% PV, Labor might struggle for enough preferences to beat Evans.
As reported three days ago
i was travelling so i missed it
Couldn’t scroll up three comments?
Ok now I see it
Am the only one who thinks Stephen Bates could hold on in Brisbane? Sure, he doesn’t the profile of Max Chandler-Mather and hasn’t been in the news much. I’m not from this electorate but from what I’m hearing he has been very effective within the electorate itself.
His win in 2022 was unexpected and he sure is vulnerable but I don’t see his loss as guaranteed as some assume.
Im saying Labor gain here.
Labor need the gain here to balance out possible losses in Wills, Macnamara, Richmond and Franklin as well as any seats they might lose to the Libs.
Redistributed they won’t lose franklin now with Lib and onp preferences. They could lose Bean and Fremantle though. Macnamara and Richmond are also possibiliti d s but I think they will hold wills on liberal preferences
Greens were the Teal alternative here and in Ryan and Griffith, that’s why they won, imo.
The 2022 issues aren’t the issues this time, i’d expect the old status quo to resume and Labor to retake Griffith on Green preferences.
Just my opinion, the likeliest Qld seats to fall are Dickson to Ellie Smith [with a huge tactical vote from the left parties], and McPherson to Erchana Murray-Bartlett from Climate 200. The LNP candidate is a head office pick who was a staffer for Julie Bishop. In parochial Qld, in a stale pale electorate, how is he supposed to get up?
I’m thinking narrow (on 3CP) Green retain, the Labor government isn’t that popular, and in the vicinity of this electorate I disagree that Bates hasn’t been active in the community. All of the Greens MPs have been running tons of community stuff, possibly the most active MPs in history in the community. The lib vote will probably go down again cos this isn’t a Dutton friendly seat, so it’ll be safer on 2CP.
im saying labor gain given the narrow margin between labor and green pushing labor into the count
Bates is more popular here than people outside the electorate realise. Definitely seen as less ‘extreme’ than other Greens and has done a lot of on the ground work that wouldn’t be picked up in media. This one might surprise people on the night.
Expecting a fairly similar result to last time, going to tip a three candidate preferred of 36% LNP, 33% GRN, 31% ALP.
The vibe at City Hall yesterday was definitely anti-Dutton but not pro-Labor.
As a resident of Brisbane I’ve found it notable that Labor material has not criticised (or mentioned) the Greens at all. I have noticed the same in Ryan and presume that could be the case in Griffith.
None of the factors that drove Red-Green swing voters to flip to red in the state election exist in federal (those were a scare on Abortion issues that the Labor leader could talk about every press conference, a sudddenly very Greenish Labor government with 50 cent public transport fares and some new enviro pledges, and the general fear of an inevitable LNP majority).
Their are anti-Green Advance ads, but I don’t think the content of them are well targeted to the type of voters that matter to the exclusion order of Labor vs Green. They could be twisting some Blue-Green swingers back to Blue.
If it’s possible to defeat incumbents without mentioning them I would be surprised. I would expect the Greens’ share of the Green+Labor vote to grow in all 3 seats.
there was a poll of almost 10000 people
giving the folowwing result
3 Feb – 1 Apr 2025 Accent Research/RedBridge Group (MRP)[2] 9,953 — 45% 21% 28% — — 6% 48% grn 53% lnp
What were the results of the ‘exit poll’ in Brisbane that was published today?
LNP and Labor made gains while GRN fell well behind – but 20 odd voters on day one of prepoll is unlikely to be a great sample
200 that should say
Here’s an LNP billboard in Alderley (in this seat) featuring Victorian premier Jacinta Allan.
https://x.com/KosSamaras/status/1915016954395693236
Brisbane exit poll by Newscorp this morning
LNP 39% (+1.3%) ALP 34.5% (+7.3%) Greens 23.5% (-3.7%)
Take it with a grain of salt. Greens don’t normally do that well at prepolls.
@Votante the LNP campaign has been beyond embarrassing in some aspects and this exemplifies the sort of embarrassing gaffes they’ve been on.
Will be interesting to see how it goes. Wouldn’t take a lot for Bates to lose to Jarrett. In the current environment it’s near impossible for Evans to make a comeback in this seat.
I live in this electorate, Fortitude Valley. I’ve seen mostly advertising for LNP, and flyers have been a mix of Greens and anti-greens, some LNP. I’ve seen basically no campaigning from Labor at all, oddly enough.
Whilst Bates is not making a lot of noise on the national level, I think he is seen as an engaged local member. He is very easy to reach, and I routinely see him out and about talking to people (pre election) or hosting events in the electorate.
Obviously with the 3 way race it would not take a lot for him to lose his seat, but I would not say he is an unpopular MP by any stretch – quite the opposite.
I live in New Farm and I too have received a lot of LNP material in the letterbox and not much from the Greens or Labor. Lots of blue shirts out for Trevor Evans on the weekends. Hard to get a read across the seat but my impression here is a swing back to blue in this area is likely. Not sure if it will be replicated in other parts of the electorate and I still find it hard to believe the LNP will get to the sort of primary vote they will need to win (~mid-40s), making it a straight red/green contest.
AEC now has the liberals in the lead here. What is going on this election?
What’s going on is the AEC are showing an incomplete and not representative realignment to the Labor vs LNP 2CP count. It looks like mostly small booths with postals drowning them out. It’s easy enough to tell from the primaries that the LNP are not winning Brisbane, don’t mind the incomplete preference count.
looks like ALP + Green vote is nearly 60% so also found it hard to believe that LNP would be ahead
I can see that now – jumped the gun a little soon there